Signals Of The Future: From Flying Taxis To A Crowded Planet
From using the sky as an advertising billboard, to flying taxis, to re-purposing redundant department stores, the future’s already here.
Flying Taxis
Paris is opening a flying taxi hub ahead of the Olympic Games to carry passengers from the airports to a floating heliport on the Seine. The heart does sink at the thought of the visual clutter in our skies and more noisy helicopters ferrying the wealthy over the city. But it seems that this is set to be the future.
A new generation of electrical vertical take-off and landing craft — with the snappy acronym ‘eVTOLs’ — are being developed by companies in many parts of the world. Billions of dollars are being invested and commercial flights are planned for numerous cities from 2024.
One of the global leaders — Vertical Aerospace — are based in my home city of Bristol. They point out that their new aircraft are fast, low-emissions, and quiet when flying — and they predict strong consumer demand.
What will these mean for cities? Certainly they’ll be a regulatory nightmare. Imagine lots of low flying eVTOLs competing for airspace with regular aircraft, drones, and each other. What will be the aerial highway code of the future and how will it be enforced? Will eVTOLs be piloted or autonomous? It’s certainly going to be difficult to train up so many new pilots (who will then sit and watch the autopilot). What will be the impact of flying taxis on existing modes of transport? They will challenge planes on some inter-city routes but also trains and mass transit within cities. And will the public accept them?
I expect we’ll see these being used first in industry, the military, and the emergency services. They may help connect remote rural communities and they’ll certainly play a role in major spectator events like the Olympics.
Crowded Planet
On Tuesday the 15th November 2022, the number of people on the planet passed 8 billion, according to the UN. When it comes to predicting the future, demography is definitely destiny. So, what do we know?
The world’s population is expected to peak at just over ten billion — higher than recent estimates. This will certainly put more pressure on resources and the environmental carrying capacity of the planet.
The big population increase in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East is likely to intensify conflicts. And more people will mean more pressure on land and resources already being negatively impacted by climate change. People will move to survive or to seek a better life.
Population growth is slowing, including in China, which will join the ranks of countries dealing with an ageing population. By mid-century the world as a whole will have more very old people than very young people.
Ageing and shrinking populations in many countries will lead to rural depopulation, budgetary crises, and the welcoming of more and more robots into society to replace a declining labour force and to take care of the elderly.
In a world of 8 billiion people, three things we can expect are more resource depletion, more robots, and more refugees.
Selling The Sky
Last week, 500 drones were launched into the night sky over New York to advertise the anniversary of the Candy Crush game. For ten minutes they created giant synchronised images over the iconic skyline.
Some people were wowed by the show; others reacted negatively to the perceived invasion of their skies and the fact that there seems to be no escape, anywhere, from being assailed by advertising.
Should we be relaxed about this: maybe it’s just the modern version of a plane trailing a banner over summer beaches. Or should we be angry that seemingly nothing is sacred, that we can’t even look at the stars without seeing corporate adverts? There are serious questions about light pollution, impacts on wildlife, who gives permission, and who gets the revenue. The Candy Crush drones were licensed and flown from another jurisdiction — New Jersey — even though they were seen by residents of New York. If the sky is treated as a giant billboard, who gets the revenue from advertising there? Expect to see more drone shows; expect to see more controversy.
Where Will We Live?
I popped into to John Lewis this week to buy some kitchen items. While there, I asked myself would I be happy to get my whole home from them? The much-loved British retail brand has decided to turn redundant stores and warehouses into apartments to rent, and intends to deliver 10,000 homes in the next 10 years. It certainly has some prime locations, a land-bank, and a reputation for exceptional customer service. It can also offer tenants furnishing packages.
This seems like a good re-use of buildings and sites that have been made redundant by e-commerce. It set me thinking: what will be other stranded assets of the future that will be available for re-use? Petrol stations supplanted by electric vehicles; cinema multiplexes superflous to requirements with VR goggles in every home; multi-story car parks made redundant by ride-hailing and self driving cars. And is somebody quietly analysing and buying-up these land-banks of the future?
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