Futures Signals: From Prioritising Pedestrians to Zero-Emissions Flights
Regular readers know that I keep my eye out for seeds of possible futures, and then do a short blog every Friday lunchtime on something I’ve seen the previous week. This month’s signals range from futures where pedestrians take priority and where culture is taken seriously in place-making to futures where food is closely guarded and where some short-haul flights are zero-emissions.
Pedestrian Priority
Will our cities return to the past, with the vast majority of journeys made by foot? Recently, the Mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, set out her ‘Code de la Rue : Priorité aux Piétons’.
Paris is certainly moving in that direction. She tells how, in the last 10 years, car traffic has decreased by 40% and pollution by 45%. Paris now has more than 1,120 km of cycle paths, compared to 200 km in 2001. And now she plans to go further with better crossings, wider pavements, more guidance for the visually impaired, and tougher enforcement. I’m looking forward to experiencing this when we’re there this summer.
In London, the Mayor’s aim, set out in the Walking Action Plan, is that, by 2041, 80 per cent of all journeys will be made on foot, by cycle, or using public transport and all Londoners will achieve at least two ten-minute periods of active travel per day.
Walking is an important part of city life, building community, supporting local businesses, and improving our physical and mental health.
I was running a futures session for a group of business leaders this week and one of the trends they are worried about is the obesity epidemic, with around a quarter of our 10-year-olds obese.
Encouraging everyone to incorporate physical activity into their daily routines — by walking when they can — is part of the solution. Walking is a great form of exercise and can also help to reduce the risk of heart disease, diabetes, and other chronic health conditions.
Of course, people need to drive. But an urban future where everyone is sitting in a car — or zipping along on whatever is the latest form of micro-mobility — is unlikely to be a healthy or pleasant one.
Luckily, more and more city leaders and developers are recognising the importance (and attractiveness) of walkable neighbourhoods where routes are safe, pleasant, and green. Priorité aux piétons’!
Enhancing Places
How can real estate developments integrate and support culture — and create better places — rather than just cramming in the maximum per m2?
I got an interesting glimpse when I visited the St Giles/Outernet development, adjacent to Tottenham Court Road station. This has statement architecture, (the Now Building has the largest deployment of video screens in the world), innovation (a ‘distributed hotel’, Chateau Denmark, spread across the top floors of 16 buildings), and a real concern for the past (a 300-year-old building was craned-up on a concrete platform and then put carefully back in place).
What most struck me was how the developer had invested in maintaining and enhancing the important music culture of the area. Denmark Street is famous for its place in UK musical history. It’s where the Sex Pistols once lived, where ‘The NME’ and ‘Melody Maker’ were published, where Bowie and Hendrix hung-out, and where The Kinks, Elton John, and the Rolling Stones recorded.
The surviving independent music shops have been updated and found new homes on the street, a pro-bono recording studio is coming soon, and there are great new places to hear live music. I was particularly impressed by the new 2,000-person venue, ‘Here’, four stories under-ground. (London has lost so many live music venues).
The developer makes this place work by cross-subsidising the art and culture from the more profitable uses, particularly the 26,000 sq ft of digital screens.
There has been shonky plonking of large digital advertising screens recently, including in my own city Bristol. The 360-degree screens by Outernet are an integral part of the building, they show 50% advertising — 50% art, and the crowds are flocking. I loved it!
The future of our city centres relies on great visitor experience. This means (as has been done here) imaginatively re-using buildings, investing in high-quality public realm, and enhancing the particular character of the place. Cross-subsidising from more profitable uses — including digital screens done well — can be part of the answer.
Precious Food
I popped into a supermarket in central London this week, and discovered — as my way was barred and an alarm sounded — that I needed to scan the barcode on my receipt to get through the barriers and out of the store.
I’ve blogged in the past on how retail is getting more frictionless in many parts of the world, with scan-as-you-go, paying via facial recognition, or even checking out with your palm. It seems that in some locations, shopping is becoming more restrictive because of a steep rise in shoplifting.
There is certainly a trend. Data from the ONS and the police suggest that shoplifting is now rising at between 25% and 30% annually. This up-tick coincided with the cost of living crisis. So-called ‘first-time shoplifters’ are stealing in desperation to feed their children.
Some individual stores in the UK are losing £50,000 in stock a week. And of course, the costs of theft and of increased security are passed back into higher food prices.
Stores are responding by ‘display only’ coffee jars, limiting the number of expensive products on display, and security tagging basics like cheese, butter, and even milk.
In a future where the cost of living continues to outstrip real wages, where severe weather events impact supply, and where we rely heavily on imported food in an increasingly protectionist world, will we see food being more heavily guarded?
Zero-Emission Flights
I was intrigued to see that Dutch start-up, Electron Aviation, plans to launch inter-city electric plane flights by 2027. Flying from Twente and Groningen airports, the planes will fly to various European cities within a 500km radius.
These planes are small and will only carry four passengers. The company wants to operate like an Uber for the air, with on-demand journeys that — they say — will (eventually) be competitive with the price of a commercial air ticket.
The big issue for electric planes is the weight and size of the battery. This limits range and the number of passengers. Eviation, based in the US, has a nine-seater which flew last year, Rolls Royce are developing their electric engine, while Airbus are working on a hybrid solution.
Many experts predict that battery technology will never be able to store enough energy for long-haul flights and are instead focusing on hydrogen and biofuels.
For short-haul flights, particularly where rail doesn’t work, electric planes should be a solution. They will be quiet. And assuming they are powered from renewable sources, they will be zero emissions in flight.
Electric planes for moving larger numbers of passengers won’t be ready till the early 2030s. And then, the range will be strictly limited, and, of course, whole fleets will have to be swapped-out.
So, there may be more climate-friendly flying on some routes in ten years’ time. Until then, follow the sustainable travel hierarchy.
